ERP Budget Overrun Statistics (2026): Sourced Numbers for ECC and S/4HANA Programs

Overrun figures for ERP and S/4HANA programs get repeated across vendor blogs, often with no traceable origin. This page keeps only the numbers we could tie to a named survey or report, states the population and year for each, and shows where sources disagree. Where a figure could not be traced, we left it out.

Key takeaways

Overall overrun rates for ERP projects

The most recent large benchmark for ERP budgets is Panorama Consulting Group's 2026 report. Its survey covered 170 organizations and used data gathered from January 2025 through January 2026.

• Panorama's headline finding is that more than a quarter of organizations ran past their project budgets, and that extra technology was the leading cause (Panorama press release, March 4, 2026).
• In the full report, the respondents who were over budget named unexpected technology needs as their most common reason (Panorama, 2026 ERP Report PDF).
• The median project ran nine months, and about 22.3% finished later than planned (erp-software.org, 2026; Xorosoft, 2026).

The full distribution, as reproduced by secondary summaries of the Panorama data, is shown below. The on-budget and under-budget shares add up to 70%, which means 30% finished over.

Source: Xorosoft summarizing Panorama Consulting Group, 2026 ERP Report (n=170)

Gartner's forecast measures a different thing. It is not a budget metric. Gartner expects that by 2027, more than 70% of recently implemented ERP initiatives will fail to fully meet their original business case goals, and as many as 25% will fail catastrophically (Gartner, ERP topic page). Gartner's position is a prediction, not a measured outcome.

Source: Gartner, ERP research (forecast for 2027)

What drives budget overruns

Panorama asked the over-budget respondents to pick every cause that applied, so the shares below do not add to 100%.

Source: erp-software.org summarizing Panorama Consulting Group, 2026 ERP Report (over-budget projects, multiple answers allowed)

Panorama's commentary frames the technology gap as a late discovery. Teams find a poor fit deep into the project and then add tools, widen scope, or build custom components (Panorama press release, 2026).

Consulting fees are the other recurring cost surprise in ASUG's data. Members named them as the main source of unexpected spend, and the figure rose 20% from 2023 to 2024 (ASUG, 2024).

A secondary analysis of the same Panorama survey reports that the median project finished at 0.9 times its estimate, which is slightly under budget. That result is consistent with the mix of outcomes above, since the median sits in the on-budget group (Redlio Labs analysis of Panorama data).

S/4HANA migration overruns

The most-cited S/4HANA figures come from a 2025 Horváth study. Its population was 200 SAP user companies with at least €200 million in annual revenue and at least 200 employees, drawn from the DACH region, Northern and Eastern Europe, and the US. Interviews ran in Q1 2025, and only 37 of the companies had completed their migration (Zinstall, citing Horváth, 2025).

• More than six in ten respondents reported budget deviations. In one quarter of cases the budget was exceeded significantly, and in another 40% it was exceeded to a meaningful degree (CIO, March 2025).
• Only 8% of companies that had completed their migration did so on schedule, and projects took 30% longer than planned on average (Zinstall, citing Horváth, 2025).
• Under-estimated testing and data migration phases ranked among the main reasons for missed targets (Zinstall, citing Horváth, 2025).

Source: CIO, March 2025, citing Horváth 2025

Source: Zinstall, citing Horváth, 2025

Horváth's respondents also reported quality problems after cutover. Two-thirds, at 65%, described quality deficiencies that were severe or very severe. The same study tied these to scope expansion and to testing and data migration phases that had been underestimated (CIO, March 2025; Zinstall, citing Horváth, 2025).

Source: CIO, March 2025, citing Horváth 2025

Asked what they would change, more than 40% of Horváth respondents said they would have set a higher budget from the start, and 30% said they would have cut scope (CIO, March 2025).

ASUG's member research gives a different view, because it asks about current cost experience rather than only completed projects. In its 2024 S/4HANA Journeys research, ASUG asked organizations already live on S/4HANA how their costs compared with expectations.

Source: ASUG, 2024 SAP S/4HANA Journeys (organizations already live on S/4HANA)

ASUG's later research points to a smaller overrun share. A 2025 release reports that 31% of respondents said costs were above expectations, a decline from the prior year. The wording of that change is ambiguous, since the source does not say whether the drop is measured in points or as a relative percentage. Costs were in line with expectations for 34% (ASUG, 2025).

ASUG's 2026 S/4HANA research surveyed 194 members. Of those, 38% said costs met or came in under their budget expectations, and 61% reported on-time go-lives in 2026, up from 56% in 2025 (ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 research). The published findings do not include the share of projects over budget or the size of any overrun (ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 research).

Source: ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 S/4HANA research

Source: ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 S/4HANA research

On duration, ASUG members reported an average go-live of 1.4 years. That was 15.8 months for brownfield and 20.2 months for greenfield (ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 research). The mainstream maintenance deadline for ECC 6.0 remains at the end of 2027 (CIO, March 2025).

Benefits, quality and the historical record

Overrun is only one way a program can miss. Gartner's forecast and the Horváth quality figures measure outcomes beyond cost. Both point to benefits and quality as the larger gap, and both appear in the sign-off decision.

Older studies still circulate, so we show them separately and mark them historical.

• A 2020/21 Trovarit survey of about 2,000 ERP users found more than 40% of projects overran by more than 5%. Only about 47% landed within plus or minus 5% of the original budget (erp-software.org citing Trovarit, 2021). This is historical and covers all ERP types, not S/4HANA alone.
• The 1994 Standish Group CHAOS report found that 16.2% of software projects were on time and on budget, 31.1% were canceled, and 52.7% ran 189% over their original cost estimate (OpenCommons summary of the 1994 CHAOS report). This is historical and covers software in general.

Source: OpenCommons summary of Standish Group CHAOS report, 1994 (historical)

The 189% figure has its own problem. A later review found that the 189% average applied to the "challenged" subset of projects, not to all of them. It also noted that other studies did not support the 89% average overrun the Standish Group reported (ScienceDirect review of the 1994 CHAOS report; ResearchGate review abstract). Treat it as a warning about measurement, not a benchmark for ERP.

Where the numbers conflict

Several figures in circulation do not hold up against their claimed sources. We flag them so you do not carry them into a board paper.

• "73% of ERP projects fail" and "215% average overrun." These are widely attributed to Panorama Consulting. An analysis of Panorama's 2026 report found no trace of them in the publisher's own material (NAWA One analysis of Panorama 2026 data). We excluded them.
• "50–75% of ERP projects exceed budget." This is an aggregated range from secondary sites that blend budget, schedule, and benefit measures. No single 2026 failure rate exists, because studies define failure differently (ERP Research, 2026).
• Panorama's overrun share: "more than a quarter" vs. 30%. The primary report uses "more than a quarter." The 30% figure is a sum of slight and significant overruns in secondary reproductions of the same data. Both can be true, but they are different cuts.
• Horváth's "60%." Some coverage reads this as 60% over budget. Other coverage describes 60% deviating on budget, schedule, or result quality combined (Lunatec on Horváth, Q1 2025; CIO, March 2025). Use the budget-only figure for budget questions.
• Two different 65% figures. Horváth reports 65% with severe quality deficiencies. A secondary blog cites an SAPinsider 2025 benchmark with 65% reporting severe data quality deficiencies after go-live (Alex Solutions, citing SAPinsider 2025). We could not access the SAPinsider report directly, so we do not treat the two as one result.
• Panorama's 2025 "68% fail to meet objectives." A consultancy blog attributes this to Panorama's 2025 research (Orpington Tech). It measures benefits, not budget, so it cannot be compared with the 30% overrun share.
• Historical Panorama data. A secondary summary puts the 2024 Panorama report at about 47% over budget, with a sample of 131 organizations surveyed from August 2022 to December 2023 (Flectic summary of Panorama 2024). We could not verify this against the Panorama 2024 report itself, and another secondary summary describes the same edition as having more than half of projects within budget (Thoughtlogik on Panorama 2017, 2024 and 2026). Treat the 2024 figure as unconfirmed.

Outlook and AI

Forecasts for AI-enabled ERP are less settled than the overrun data. The figures below are secondary reports of Gartner forecasts, not Gartner primary documents.

• Gartner expects that by 2027, fewer than 10% of organizations using agentic AI will realize significant, measurable value (ERP Software Blog summarizing Gartner, 2025).
• Gartner also warns that only 30% of organizations are likely to have data quality good enough for advanced AI in their ERP environments by 2027 (ERP Software Blog summarizing Gartner, 2025).
• In ASUG's 2026 research, 31% of respondents were discussing SAP's AI without a meaningful strategy behind it (ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 research).

What this means for your sign-off

1. Size the contingency to the actual drivers. In Panorama's data, extra technology, scope growth, and technical issues cause most overruns. A flat percentage contingency will not cover them. Tie each contingency line to a named driver and a trigger, and review it at each gate.
2. Budget test and data migration explicitly. Horváth's respondents named underestimated testing and data migration as a main cause of overruns. Put test data creation, masking, and reconciliation in the baseline rather than in general program contingency. Our test data guide for S/4HANA covers the options.
3. Set the opening budget with the regret in mind. More than 40% of Horváth's respondents would have funded a larger budget from the start. Treat the first approved number as a floor for the business case, not a target to beat.
4. Track schedule and cost together. ASUG's average go-live of 15.8 months for brownfield versus 20.2 for greenfield shows how much the path changes the timeline. Use your own path to forecast cost, not an industry average. Start with the phase-by-phase migration testing plan.
5. Fund the testing organization as a budget line. Overrun risk rises when test capacity is treated as a project-team afterthought. The SAP Testing CoE operating model shows how to budget roles and run costs.
6. Benchmark against the right population. Compare your program to the Horváth population (companies with at least €200 million in revenue) or ASUG's member base, and say which measure you are using. Our S/4HANA migration numbers and test plan notes explain the measurement differences in more detail.

Frequently asked questions

What percentage of ERP projects go over budget?

In Panorama Consulting's 2026 ERP Report, which surveyed 170 organizations, more than a quarter reported running over budget. Secondary summaries of the same data put the combined slight and significant overrun share at 30% (erp-software.org summarizing Panorama, 2026).

How often do S/4HANA migrations exceed their budget?

Horváth's 2025 study of 200 SAP user companies found that more than six in ten migrations exceeded their planned budget (CIO, March 2025). In ASUG's 2024 member research, 49% of organizations already live on S/4HANA reported costs above their original budget (ASUG, 2024).

What is the most common cause of ERP budget overruns?

Among over-budget projects in Panorama's 2026 survey, 54.9% cited an unexpected need for additional technology. Expanded scope followed at 51.0% (erp-software.org summarizing Panorama, 2026).

Is the "73% of ERP projects fail" statistic real?

We could not trace it to a Panorama publication, and an independent analysis of Panorama's 2026 report did not find it there (NAWA One analysis). The closest documented figure is Gartner's forecast that more than 70% of recent ERP initiatives will miss their original business case goals by 2027 (Gartner). That is a business-outcome measure, not a budget one.

How long do S/4HANA migrations take?

Horváth's 2025 respondents reported projects running about 30% longer than planned, on average, and only 8% of completed migrations finished on schedule (Zinstall, citing Horváth, 2025). ASUG's 2026 members reported an average go-live of 1.4 years (ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 research).

Do ASUG's latest numbers show how many projects went over budget?

Not directly. ASUG's 2026 published findings report that 38% of 194 members kept costs on or under budget, but they do not give the share of projects over budget or the size of any overrun (ERP Leaders on ASUG 2026 research).

Sources

1. Panorama Consulting Group Releases Latest Study of ERP Implementation Outcomes, Panorama Consulting Group, March 4, 2026
2. The 2026 ERP Report, Panorama Consulting Group, 2026
3. Latest Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Insights, Gartner, undated topic page
4. What IT Leaders Must Do to Avoid Disappointing ERP Initiatives, Gartner, 2024
5. SAP customers struggle with S/4HANA migration, CIO, March 2025 (citing Horváth 2025)
6. Data Migration Failure Rates, Zinstall, 2026 (citing Horváth 2025)
7. Why 92% of SAP migrations finish late, Lunatec, 2025 (citing Horváth Q1 2025)
8. The State of SAP S/4HANA Adoption: Trends, Successes, and Challenges, ASUG, 2024
9. ASUG Research: SAP S/4HANA Adoption Trends, Insights, and Advice, ASUG, 2025
10. 38% of SAP users kept S/4HANA on budget, ASUG found. 61% hit the date., ERP Leaders (reporting ASUG 2026 research), October 2026
11. ERP Statistics 2026: Market Size, Costs, Adoption, erp-software.org (summarizing Panorama 2026 and Trovarit 2021)
12. ERP Implementation Statistics 2026, Xorosoft (summarizing Panorama 2026)
13. ERP Implementation Cost: What Quotes Leave Out, Redlio Labs, 2026
14. The ERP "Failure Rate" Myth vs. Panorama's Real Data, NAWA One, 2026
15. ERP Failure Statistics & Case Studies, ERP Research, 2026
16. ERP Implementation Statistics & Success Rates, Flectic, 2025 (summarizing Panorama 2024)
17. ERP Implementation Timeline by Company Size (2026 Data), Thoughtlogik, 2026
18. CHAOS Report on IT Project Outcomes, OpenCommons (summarizing Standish Group, 1994, historical)
19. How large are software cost overruns? A review of the 1994 CHAOS report, ScienceDirect (Information and Software Technology), 2005
20. How large are software cost overruns? A review of the 1994 CHAOS report (abstract page), ResearchGate, 2005
21. Top Trends in ERP: Insights from Gartner's Roadmap, ERP Software Blog (summarizing Gartner), December 2025
22. Why ERP initiatives struggle to deliver business value, TechTarget, 2025 (citing Gartner 2024 prediction)
23. Why SAP Migrations Go Over Budget, Alex Solutions, 2025 (citing SAPinsider 2025, secondary)
24. Why ERP Projects Go Over Budget and Behind Schedule, Orpington Tech, 2025 (citing Panorama 2025, secondary)

Last updated: November 12, 2026. Statistics are refreshed as new research is published.